October ** accounted for 30-month highs experts expect December or interest rate hike

The People's Bank of China released the data on November 26, showing that the newly added foreign exchange accounted for as high as 519.407 billion yuan in October, hitting a new high in 30 months, a sharp increase of 79.27% ​​from the previous quarter. Analysts pointed out that the recent quantitative easing policies of the United States have led to the proliferation of global liquidity, hot money accelerated into emerging economies, and the expected increase in interest rates and appreciation of the renminbi has attracted hot money to return to China.

Industrial Bank (601166) economist Lu political commissar said that if this trend continues, the statutory deposit reserve ratio may be further 1.0-1.5 percentage points during the year.

In the first four months of this year, new foreign exchange operations continued to operate at a high level, but they declined sharply in May and June, and rose again in July and August. From the surge of new foreign exchange accounts in September and October, it can be seen that since the third quarter, foreign exchange funds have apparently recovered their net inflows, while the renminbi accelerated its appreciation over the same period.

Since mid-October, central bank policies and measures to manage liquidity have been frequent. Within four weeks from October 18th to November 14th, the central bank accumulated a net return of 153.5 billion yuan in open market operations. In November, the central bank raised the reserve ratio twice and frozen 600 billion yuan. Analysts said that the direct trigger for the upward adjustment of the reserve ratio is the hedging of large foreign exchange funds.

Lu political commissar of the view that, in the strong interest rate hike expectations, the current organization to avoid floating losses in the future, the enthusiasm for the subscription of the central bank vote is not high, which led to the central bank issue this week fell to several billion yuan in the amount of ground level, open market operations Nearly lost liquidity management capabilities. "To restore its liquidity management function, we must raise interest rates." Lu political commissar predicted that between December 7-18, the central bank may raise interest rates again.

According to statistics, as of the end of October, the balance of foreign exchange held by the central bank was 21.85 trillion yuan, which was an increase of 2.49% from the end of September. The previous high point for monthly new foreign exchange purchases was 525.1 billion yuan in April 2008.

Foreign exchange accounts hit new high central bank for 30 months. Hearing pressure surged In October, financial institutions added 519.407 billion foreign exchange accounts. Experts expect that the reserve ratio will continue to increase during the year. The central bank released data on the 26th, showing that new foreign exchanges were added to financial institutions in October. The amount of money was 519.407 billion yuan, which was the newest monthly increase since April 2008. The surge in foreign exchange spending has led to an increase in liquidity, which has once again pushed the central bank’s monetary policy operations to the cusp. According to expert analysis, the deposit reserve ratio will be raised again during the year.

Hu Xiaolian, deputy governor of the Central Bank, admitted frankly that major developed countries continued to implement quantitative easing policies and the global excess liquidity situation intensified. China’s economic growth has been rapid, and foreign trade and utilization of foreign capital have all resumed growth. As the expectations for RMB appreciation continue to increase, the international Liquidity continues to flow into the country, increasing the pressure of rising prices and asset prices, but also increasing the difficulty of liquidity management. This is interpreted by the market as the expected appreciation of the renminbi is the main driving force for hot money inflows.

The data shows that since the central bank began to publish data on foreign exchange receipts of financial institutions in 2007, there have been a total of four cases of new foreign exchange accounts for more than 500 billion yuan in one month. The first three times occurred in September 2007 and 2008 respectively. In April and April 2008, the number of new foreign exchange accounts in October this year ranked fourth.

The surge in foreign exchange purchases will lead to an increase in liquidity conditions, and the data confirms that from 2007 to the first half of 2008, it was China's relatively liquidity period. During this period, the central bank had to continuously raise the deposit reserve ratio, etc. Means to hedge. During the 18 months from 2007 to June 2008, the Central Bank raised the reserve requirement ratio 15 times in total.

To cope with the increased liquidity caused by foreign exchange purchases, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio twice this month to substantially reduce liquidity. Industrial Bank (601166) senior economist Lu political commissar of the view that in November the yuan still appreciated nearly 3%, which is estimated that the international capital inflow pressure is still huge. Considering that in addition to foreign exchange purchase pressure, the end of the year will also face trillions of financial deposit inflows, and therefore, there is still the possibility of an increase of 0.5-1.0% reserve ratio during the year.

Hu Xiaolian said recently that the central bank will further increase liquidity management and continue to comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools based on changes in the economic and financial situation and foreign exchange flows, rationalize arrangements for monetary policy instruments, adopt quantitative and price-based tools, and The macro-prudential management approach maintains a reasonable and appropriate banking system liquidity and creates a good monetary environment for the basic stability of the overall price level. She also stressed that the current strengthening of liquidity management is an important task of monetary policy, and it is also a major expression of monetary conditions returning to normal.

Increase in Foreign Exchange Occupation in October Incremental Innovation High Liquidity Surges Test of Government Regulation and Control Capabilities According to the latest data from the People's Bank of China, China’s newly added foreign exchange accounted for 519 billion yuan in October, the second highest in history. Analysts believe that the huge amount of foreign exchange purchases has further increased the amount of domestic currency supply and increased the pressure of rising prices. How to manage liquidity in a multi-pronged manner tests the control wisdom of monetary authorities.

According to the data of the Central Bank, as of the end of October, China’s foreign exchange accounted for 2,18454 million yuan, an increase of 519 billion yuan over the previous month, hitting a new high of 30 months. The last monthly high was in April 2008, when the new foreign exchange accounted for 525.1 billion yuan.

Foreign exchange funds are the domestic currency that the banks purchase for their foreign currency assets. In general, trade surpluses, foreign investment use, and overseas hot money inflows are the main drivers of sharp rises in foreign exchange receipts.

Zhang Ming, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that emerging markets once again became the main destinations for international hot money flows after the European debt crisis of mid-year, and the opening of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy by the Fed in October allowed hot money. The influx of the pace has obviously accelerated, which has directly become an important reason for the surge in foreign exchange expenditure in China in October.

It was from the third quarter of this year that China’s foreign exchange purchases showed a rapid increase. In July, August and September, foreign exchange accounts for new loans totaled 170.951 billion yuan, 2433.0 billion yuan and 289.565 billion yuan. Experts believe that the amount of foreign exchange surged month by month. Behind the hidden hot money in the shadow.

“Although management departments continue to crack down on 'hot money', in fact, many of our hot money can still be accessed through trade channels or through other channels. Even the money that is returned by some of the overseas diaspora of China now has the nature of hot money.” Dean Xie Taifeng, dean of the University of Finance, said.

In addition, the significant increase in the surplus in October also contributed to the increase in foreign exchange payments. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s trade surplus reached the second highest in the year in October this year, reaching US$27.15 billion, a substantial increase of US$10.2 billion from September.

Caused the launch of base money to increase inflationary pressure. Economists believe that because foreign exchange funds will form a further base money supply, the sharp increase in foreign exchange purchases will increase the supply of domestic currency, leading to increased inflationary pressures.

"Since the third quarter, the central bank's net position on the market has increased by more than 1.9 trillion yuan, of which foreign exchange spending has soared by 1 trillion yuan, showing that foreign exchange funds have become the 'main water pump' for current absolute money supply." Liu Yanhui, a research fellow at the Institute of Finance at the Institute of Science and Technology, said.

Under the influence of the sustained double surplus pattern in recent years, foreign exchange accounts continue to increase and boost China’s broad money supply to 70 trillion yuan. China has surpassed the United States as the country with the highest global money supply.

There is a certain correlation between the surge in foreign exchange receipts and rising prices. If you look at the relevant historical data, you can see that in the years when foreign exchange purchases surged, the price index was often relatively high.

Data show that in April 2008, China's monthly new foreign exchange purchases reached a record high of 525.1 billion yuan. This time is not only the most fervent period of hot money influx, but also the most intense period of inflationary pressure in the previous round. National Bureau of Statistics data show that: In April 2008, China's consumer prices rose by 8.5% year-on-year, reaching a record high.

Experts suggested that the multi-pronged approach to controlling liquidity analysts believe that with regard to increasing overseas funds, it is necessary to do a good job of controlling and controlling liquidity, and use multiple policy measures to hedge excessive foreign funds; on the other hand, it should also broaden the outflow of funds. Ways to reduce the risk of capital pressure.

Hu Xiaolian, the deputy governor of the central bank, recently stated at the symposium on money and credit work that the current strengthening of liquidity management is an important task of monetary policy. She proposed to adopt quantitative tools, price-based tools, and macro-prudential management methods to maintain liquidity. Reasonable and appropriate.

Liu Yuhui believes that the central bank rarely raises the deposit reserve ratio twice in a row this month, which is a timely response to the international financial crisis, and it does not rule out the possibility of continuing to raise the deposit reserve ratio in the future.

The central bank raised the reserve ratio twice this month by a total of 1 percentage point and frozen the bank system’s funds by about 700 billion yuan. Raising the deposit reserve ratio has become an important measure for the current control of liquidity.

In addition, some experts suggested that the outflow path of funds should be further expanded to reduce the pressure of monetary policy hedging. According to Ba Shusong, a financial expert of the State Council Development Research Center, with the quantitative easing policies adopted by the United States, capital inflows to emerging markets represented by China are inevitable, and curbing hot money inflows will become an inevitable trend. As a symmetry control measure, China will, while strengthening capital inflow management, adjust the supervision of capital outflows appropriately, further encourage financial institutions and residents to invest abroad, and actively promote RMB internationalization. (China Securities Journal)

Yu Yongding: Should Reduce Foreign Exchange Reserves to Relieve the Pressure of RMB Appreciation Yu Xueding, member of the Academic Committee of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and member of the former Central Bank Currency Committee, told the Great Wall Securities 2011 Annual Investment Strategy Seminar that China's economic growth should be adjusted appropriately in 2011. 8% growth is sufficient throughout the year, and inflation cannot exceed 3%. Regarding the issue of the pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi, Yu Yongding believes that the government should reduce the increase in foreign exchange reserves in the context of not being able to reduce the surplus. (Securities Times Online Alert Center)

Foreign exchange accounts hit new high central bank for 30 months. Hearing pressure surged In October, financial institutions added 519.407 billion foreign exchange accounts. Experts expect that the reserve ratio will continue to increase during the year. The central bank released data on the 26th, showing that new foreign exchanges were added to financial institutions in October. The amount of money was 519.407 billion yuan, which was the newest monthly increase since April 2008. The surge in foreign exchange spending has led to an increase in liquidity, which has once again pushed the central bank’s monetary policy operations to the cusp. According to expert analysis, the deposit reserve ratio will be raised again during the year.

Hu Xiaolian, deputy governor of the Central Bank, admitted frankly that major developed countries continued to implement quantitative easing policies and the global excess liquidity situation intensified. China’s economic growth has been rapid, and foreign trade and utilization of foreign capital have all resumed growth. As the expectations for RMB appreciation continue to increase, the international Liquidity continues to flow into the country, increasing the pressure of rising prices and asset prices, but also increasing the difficulty of liquidity management. This is interpreted by the market as the expected appreciation of the renminbi is the main driving force for hot money inflows.

The data shows that since the central bank began to publish data on foreign exchange receipts from financial institutions in 2007, there have been a total of four cases of new foreign exchange accounts for more than 500 billion yuan in one month. The first three times occurred in September 2007 and 2008 respectively. In April and April 2008, the number of new foreign exchange accounts in October this year ranked fourth.

The surge in foreign exchange purchases will lead to an increase in liquidity conditions, and the data confirms that from 2007 to the first half of 2008, it was China's relatively liquidity period. During this period, the central bank had to continuously raise the deposit reserve ratio, etc. Means to hedge. Between 18 months from 2007 to June 2008, the central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio 15 times.

To cope with the increased liquidity caused by foreign exchange purchases, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio twice this month to substantially reduce liquidity. Industrial Bank (601166) senior economist Lu political commissar of the view that in November the yuan still appreciated nearly 3%, which is estimated that the international capital inflow pressure is still huge. Considering that in addition to foreign exchange purchase pressure, the end of the year will also face trillions of financial deposit inflows, and therefore, there is still the possibility of an increase of 0.5-1.0% reserve ratio during the year.

Hu Xiaolian said recently that the central bank will further increase liquidity management and continue to comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools based on changes in the economic and financial situation and foreign exchange flows, rationalize arrangements for monetary policy instruments, adopt quantitative and price-based tools, and The macro-prudential management approach maintains a reasonable and appropriate banking system liquidity and creates a good monetary environment for the basic stability of the overall price level. She also stressed that the current strengthening of liquidity management is an important task of monetary policy, and it is also a major expression of monetary conditions returning to normal.

Increase in Foreign Exchange Occupation in October Incremental Innovation High Liquidity Surges Test of Government Regulation and Control Capabilities According to the latest data from the People's Bank of China, China’s newly added foreign exchange accounted for 519 billion yuan in October, the second highest in history. Analysts believe that the huge amount of foreign exchange purchases has further increased the amount of domestic currency supply and increased the pressure of rising prices. How to manage liquidity in a multi-pronged manner tests the control wisdom of monetary authorities.

According to the data of the Central Bank, as of the end of October, China’s foreign exchange accounted for 2,18454 million yuan, an increase of 519 billion yuan over the previous month, hitting a new high of 30 months. The last monthly high was in April 2008, when the new foreign exchange accounted for 525.1 billion yuan.

Foreign exchange funds are the domestic currency that the banks purchase for their foreign currency assets. In general, trade surpluses, foreign investment use, and overseas hot money inflows are the main drivers of sharp rises in foreign exchange receipts.

Zhang Ming, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that emerging markets once again became the main destinations for international hot money flows after the European debt crisis of mid-year, and the opening of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy by the Fed in October allowed hot money. The influx of the pace has obviously accelerated, which has directly become an important reason for the surge in foreign exchange expenditure in China in October.

It was from the third quarter of this year that China’s foreign exchange purchases showed a rapid increase. In July, August and September, foreign exchange accounts for new loans totaled 170.951 billion yuan, 2433.0 billion yuan and 289.565 billion yuan. Experts believe that the amount of foreign exchange surged month by month. Behind the hidden hot money in the shadow.

“Although management departments continue to crack down on 'hot money', in fact, many of our hot money can still be accessed through trade channels or through other channels. Even the money that is returned by some of the overseas diaspora of China now has the nature of hot money.” Dean Xie Taifeng, dean of the University of Finance, said.

In addition, the significant increase in the surplus in October also contributed to the increase in foreign exchange payments. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s trade surplus reached the second highest in the year in October this year, reaching US$27.15 billion, a substantial increase of US$10.2 billion from September.

Caused the launch of base money to increase inflationary pressure. Economists believe that because foreign exchange funds will form a further base money supply, the surge in foreign exchange purchases will increase the supply of domestic currency, leading to increased inflationary pressures.

"Since the third quarter, the central bank's net position on the market has increased by more than 1.9 trillion yuan, of which foreign exchange funds have soared by 1 trillion yuan. It can be seen that foreign exchange funds have become the 'main water pump' for the current absolute money supply." Liu Yanhui, a research fellow at the Institute of Finance at the Institute of Science and Technology, said.

Under the influence of the sustained double surplus pattern in recent years, foreign exchange accounts continue to increase and boost China’s broad money supply to 70 trillion yuan. China has surpassed the United States as the country with the highest global money supply.

There is a certain correlation between the surge in foreign exchange receipts and rising prices. If you look at the relevant historical data, you can see that in the years when foreign exchange purchases surged, the price index was often relatively high.

Data show that in April 2008, China's monthly new foreign exchange purchases reached a record high of 525.1 billion yuan. This time is not only the most fervent period of hot money influx, but also the most intense period of inflationary pressure in the previous round. National Bureau of Statistics data show that: In April 2008, China's consumer prices rose by 8.5% year-on-year, reaching a record high.

Experts suggested that the multi-pronged approach to controlling liquidity analysts believe that with regard to increasing overseas funds, it is necessary to do a good job of controlling and controlling liquidity, and use multiple policy measures to hedge excessive foreign funds; on the other hand, it should also broaden the outflow of funds. Ways to reduce the risk of capital pressure.

Hu Xiaolian, the deputy governor of the central bank, recently stated at the symposium on money and credit work that the current strengthening of liquidity management is an important task of monetary policy. She proposed to adopt quantitative tools, price-based tools, and macro-prudential management methods to maintain liquidity. Reasonable and appropriate.

Liu Yuhui believes that the central bank rarely raises the deposit reserve ratio twice in a row this month, which is a timely response to the international financial crisis, and it does not rule out the possibility of continuing to raise the deposit reserve ratio in the future.

The central bank raised the reserve ratio twice this month by a total of 1 percentage point and frozen the bank system’s funds by about 700 billion yuan. Raising the deposit reserve ratio has become an important measure for the current control of liquidity.

In addition, some experts suggested that the outflow path of funds should be further expanded to reduce the pressure of monetary policy hedging. According to Ba Shusong, a financial expert of the State Council Development Research Center, with the quantitative easing policies adopted by the United States, capital inflows to emerging markets represented by China are inevitable, and curbing hot money inflows will become an inevitable trend. As a symmetry control measure, China will, while strengthening capital inflow management, adjust the supervision of capital outflows appropriately, further encourage financial institutions and residents to invest abroad, and actively promote RMB internationalization.

Yu Yongding: Should Reduce Foreign Exchange Reserves to Relieve the Pressure of RMB Appreciation Yu Xueding, member of the Academic Committee of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and member of the former Central Bank Currency Committee, told the Great Wall Securities 2011 Annual Investment Strategy Seminar that China's economic growth should be adjusted appropriately in 2011. 8% growth is sufficient throughout the year, and inflation cannot exceed 3%. Regarding the issue of the pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi, Yu Yongding believes that the government should reduce the increase in foreign exchange reserves in the context of not being able to reduce the surplus.

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